Only a few specific studies exist on the Mantova source.Nevertheless, 
information on the location, geometry and recent activity of the source can be 
obtained from several papers dealing with geomorphology of the drainage system 
of this part of the Po Plain, geodetic levelling data, and subsurface geology.

Veggiani (1974)
This paper describes the evolution of the drainage system of the central Po 
Plain in pre-historic and historic times, using geomorphological observations 
and archeological findings; he tentatively constrains the age of the Mincio 
River diversion to the VIII century b.C. using archeological data.

Baraldi et al. (1980)
These workers study the neotectonic evolution of the plain 
north of the Po River by means of geomorphological observations and of analysis 
of subsurface data. The authors hypothesise the presence of an active fault 
south of Mantova, responsible for the sudden diversion of the Mincio River; 
according to them the presence of this tectonic lineament would be revealed also 
by the differences of the shallow stratigraphic sequences north and south of the 
diversion. They do not propose a geometry and sense of slip for this fault.

Castaldini and Panizza (1988)
They reconstruct the process that led to the diversion of the Mincio River 
strating from the late Pleistocene: according to them an E-W trending fault 
("deformative axis" following their terminology) producing relative subsidence 
of the northern sector, caused increasing difficulty in the natural N-S flowing 
of the Mincio River, and eventually favoured the abandonment of its paleo-
channel (Fossa Viva) and its capture by a left tributary of the Po River; 
ongoing slip on the fault that still produces obstruction in the river flow 
would be revealed by the braided channel pattern of the Mincio River upstream of 
the diversion, by the presence of the lakes, and by a thicker sequence of the 
fine-grained sediments below the city of Mantova. The authors hypothesize 
also that the active fault may be one of the faults found in the subsurface of 
Mantova, that appear to be sealed by middle Pliocene sediments in the reflection 
profiles; they propose that the absence of any evidence of the fault in the 
upper part of the stratigraphy, it is due either to the low resolution of the 
seismic method, not able to recognize few meters of offset in river sediments, 
or to the fault producing folding of the strata.

Marchetti (1990)
This paper focuses on the hydrology of the main rivers of the northern sector of 
the central Po Plain analysing the geometric characteristics of their meander 
belts, and reconstructs the environmental evolution of this part of the plain 
in the past 15,000 years. Marchetti shows that the Mincio River and its paleo-
channel Fossa Viva, as well as other main rivers, have the characteristics of an 
underfit stream, with average lenght and radius of curvature of its abandoned 
meanders five times larger than the present ones. Following empirical 
relationships these characteristics would be indicative of water discharges 15 
to 20 times larger than the present, that were typical during and at the end of 
the last glacial maximum. During this period the rivers formed the "Superficie 
fondamentale" of the plain, a large aggradational paleosurface found north of 
the Po River, now deeply incised by the present drainage system. According 
to the author the erosional stage started when large amount of sediments were 
not available anymore due to the formation of the large lakes at the Alps 
piedmont, and to major climatic changes; its age of inception can be constrained 
by means of archeological findings, as well as of analyses of buried paleosoils. 
The author propose that hydrological conditions similar to the present were 
found int this area starting from the "Atlantic" period (6 kyr B.P.); this 
hypothesis seems to be confirmed by the finding of neolitic settlements along 
the valleys cut into the "superficie fondamentale".

Serva (1990)
This paper hypothesises that the fault responsible for the deflection of the 
Mincio River may be a reactivation of one of the buried EW-trending faults, 
sealed by middle Pleistocene sediments, seen in reflection profiles. He maps 
several subsurface structural horizons, and points out that the presence 
of an EW-trending "deformative axes" can be deduced also by the change in slope 
shown by these surfaces.

De Martini et al. (1997, 1998)
Based on the geodetic levelling data of the Italian first order Network and on 
geomorphological observations, these workers first propose that the diversion of 
the Mincio River is produced by a high-angle, south-dipping blind reverse fault. 
The authors also hypothesize that this fault can generate infrequent earthquakes 
up to M 6.2-6.5, since the geodetic strain rate seems to be smaller than the 
geomorphological one and not large enough to induce the observed drainage 
anomaly. They consider the river diversion as the direct effect of large 
earthquakes, following well known word wide examples.

Burrato et al. (1999)
These workers use a geomorphological approach to locate and characterise active 
potentially seimogenic faults in the Po Plain. They first analyze the drainge 
system of the plain and identify several areas where significant fluvial 
anomalies (e.g., river diversions and shifts in channel patterns) are suggestive 
of the presence of active blind thrust or reverse faults. As second step of 
their approach the authors compare the position of the drainage anomalies with 
the location of known buried anticlines, to corroborate the hypothesis of their 
tectonic nature. Following the further observation that some of these anomalies 
are associated also with historical earthquakes, they propose that the blind 
thrusts responsible for the river anomalies may be potential sources of rather 
infrequent large earthquakes beneath the Po Plain. Despite the lack of 
correspondance between the anomaly shown by the Mincio River with any buried 
fault and any historical earthquake, they consider this river diversion as 
produced by an active blind thrust, which may represent one of the largest 
potentially seismogenic source in the Po Plain.
